Claude 5 released by…?
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DAYS
00
HRS
00
MINS
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SECS
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
April 30, 2026
$93.3K Vol.
32%
March 31, 2026
$851.1K Vol.
7.3%
▼0.3%
March 15, 2026
$107.4K Vol.
1.3%
December 31, 2025
$52.1K Vol. · Ended
No
February 6
$163.6K Vol. · Ended
No
February 14, 2026
$149.7K Vol. · Ended
No
February 28, 2026
$318.1K Vol. · Ended
No
March 31, 2026
$430.6K Vol. · Ended
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Feb 09, 2026, 12:00 AM Asia/Dhaka
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