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Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease 0.4%

25 bps decrease 4.1%

No change 95.6%

25+ bps increase 0.2%

Total commitments for the Ranger public sale on Me...

>$80M 50%

>$20M 93%

>$40M 77%

>$100M 37%

>$140M 24%

>$160M 14.9%

>$200M 7%

>$60M 63%

>$180M 13%

>$120M 27%

US strikes Iran by...?

March 31 18%

June 30 26%

January 31 28%

March 31 40%

June 30 44%

January 31 49%

March 31 61%

June 30 69%

January 31 47%

March 31 60%

Lighter airdrop by...?

99.9%

chance

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 44%

Kevin Hassett 36%

Christopher Waller 9%

Bill Pulte 0.1%

Judy Shelton 1.3%

David Malpass 0.2%

Howard Lutnick 0.1%

Arthur Laffer 0.1%

Larry Kudlow 0.1%

Jerome Powell 0.2%

US x Venezuela military engagement by...?

0.1%

chance

Portugal Presidential Election

João Cotrim Figueire... 15.4%

Rui Moreira (IND) 0.1%

Paulo Portas (CDS) 0.1%

Catarina Martins (BE... 0.1%

Tim Vieira (IND) 0.1%

Joana Amaral Dias (A... 0.1%

André Pestana (IND) 0.1%

André Ventura (CH) 5.5%

Orlando Cruz (IND) 0.1%

Aristides Teixeira (... 0.1%

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January...

8%

chance

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump 3.7%

J.D. Vance 52%

Rand Paul 1%

Marco Rubio 16.1%

Tulsi Gabbard 0.7%

Glenn Youngkin 1.4%

Kim Kardashian 0.5%

Donald Trump Jr. 1.5%

Matt Gaetz 0.7%

Ron DeSantis 3%

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Stephen A. Smith 1%

Gretchen Whitmer 2%

Oprah Winfrey 0.4%

Andy Beshear 2.7%

Pete Buttigieg 5%

Jon Ossoff 3.5%

Gina Raimondo 0.4%

Raphael Warnock 0.6%

Barack Obama 0.6%

George Clooney 0.5%

Elon Musk # tweets January 9 - January 16, 2026?

500-519 4%

520-539 71%

540-559 24.9%

560-579 3.3%

580+ 0.3%

Maduro out by...?

March 31, 2026 99.9%

December 31, 2026 99.9%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 27%

Elon Musk 1%

Gavin Newsom 19%

Pete Buttigieg 2.4%

Tim Walz 0.6%

Josh Shapiro 3.3%

Gretchen Whitmer 0.9%

Marco Rubio 9.9%

Alexandria Ocasio-Co... 8%

Wes Moore 1.3%

2026 NBA Champion

Oklahoma City Thunde... 40%

Houston Rockets 6%

New Orleans Pelicans 0.2%

Toronto Raptors 0.8%

Chicago Bulls 0.3%

Cleveland Cavaliers 3.5%

New York Knicks 7%

Minnesota Timberwolv... 2.8%

Phoenix Suns 1.4%

Boston Celtics 5.3%

# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

<25M 0.1%

25–30M 0.1%

30–35M 99.9%

35–40M 0.1%

40–45M 0.1%

45–50M 0.1%

50–55M 0.1%

55M+ 0.1%

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?

99.9%

chance

Lighter FDV above ___ one day after launch? (2026)

$1B 99.9%

$2B 99.9%

$3B 0.1%

$4B 0.1%

$5B 0.1%

$6B 0.1%

Bitcoin above ___ on January 16?

82,000 99.9%

84,000 99.9%

86,000 99.9%

88,000 99.9%

90,000 99.9%

92,000 99.8%

94,000 95.9%

96,000 16%

98,000 0.5%

100,000 0.4%

What price will Bitcoin hit in January?

↑ 150,000 0.4%

↓ 50,000 0.3%

↑ 130,000 1%

↑ 125,000 1%

↑ 120,000 1.5%

↑ 115,000 2.8%

↑ 105,000 19%

↑ 100,000 49%

↑ 110,000 6.4%

↓ 55,000 0.3%

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 17 3%

January 26 1.4%

January 27 1.7%

No strike by January... 69%

January 14 0.1%

January 15 0.1%

January 23 4%

January 25 1.8%

January 28 1.6%

January 16 1.3%

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