Grok 4.20 released by...?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
March 31
$0 Vol.
>99%
April 20
$38.2K Vol.
96.6%
▲0.5%
April 20
$35.3K Vol.
95.9%
February 28
$61.224488 Vol.
94%
▼6.5%
December 31
$153K Vol. · Ended
No
January 31
$164.3K Vol. · Ended
No
January 15
$125.6K Vol. · Ended
No
January 9
$59.1K Vol. · Ended
No
February 14
$23.4K Vol. · Ended
No
April 20
$77.2K Vol. · Ended
Yes
March 31
$42.6K Vol. · Ended
Yes
February 28
$198.9K Vol. · Ended
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 20, 2026, 10:02 PM Asia/Dhaka
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