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How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

$2,655,313 Vol. 28 Feb 2026, 12:00
00 DAYS
00 HRS
00 MINS
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<$100b
<$100b
$737.1K Vol.
42.3%
$100–200b
$100–200b
$774.9K Vol.
22% ▲0.5%
$200–500b
$200–500b
$417.9K Vol.
35% ▲0.5%
$500b–1t
$500b–1t
$314.8K Vol.
1.5% ▲0.2%
$1–2t
$1–2t
$219.2K Vol.
<1%
$2t+
$2t+
$191.4K Vol.
<1%

Rules

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve according to the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.
Created At: Dec 24, 2025, 1:34 AM UTC
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