US strikes Iran by...?
00
DAYS
00
HRS
00
MINS
00
SECS
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
June 30
$2.1M Vol.
68%
▲4%
June 30
$2.1M Vol.
68%
▲4%
March 31
$4M Vol.
61%
▲3%
June 30
$3.9M Vol.
56%
▲5%
June 30
$2.8M Vol.
54%
▼7.5%
June 30
$4.3M Vol.
54%
▼0.5%
June 30
$3.5M Vol.
51%
▼1%
March 31
$7.3M Vol.
43%
▲3%
June 30
$4.9M Vol.
43%
▼11%
March 31
$6.2M Vol.
39%
▼4.5%
March 31
$5M Vol.
39%
▼16%
March 31
$7.7M Vol.
38%
▼3%
March 31
$8.5M Vol.
30%
▼8%
February 3
$1.1M Vol. · Ended
No
February 4
$1.1M Vol. · Ended
No
February 5
$2M Vol. · Ended
No
February 7
$1.1M Vol. · Ended
No
February 2
$1.2M Vol. · Ended
No
February 14
$369K Vol. · Ended
No
February 15
$170.4K Vol. · Ended
No
February 10
$41.7K Vol. · Ended
No
February 16
$134.6K Vol. · Ended
No
February 17
$69.2K Vol. · Ended
No
February 1
$1.6M Vol. · Ended
No
February 18
$37.7K Vol. · Ended
No
February 19
$27.9K Vol. · Ended
No
February 11
$13.7K Vol. · Ended
No
February 8
$0 Vol. · Ended
No
February 20
$2.3M Vol. · Ended
No
February 12
$6.3K Vol. · Ended
No
February 9
$0 Vol. · Ended
No
February 13
$6.7M Vol. · Ended
No
February 13
$0 Vol. · Ended
No
February 28
$13.2M Vol. · Ended
No
February 20
$3.2K Vol. · Ended
No
February 20
$1.5M Vol. · Ended
No
February 20
$0 Vol. · Ended
No
February 28
$6.2M Vol. · Ended
No
February 28
$0 Vol. · Ended
No
February 28
$11.1M Vol. · Ended
No
February 6
$929.4K Vol. · Ended
No
February 6
$927K Vol. · Ended
No
February 6
$1.5M Vol. · Ended
No
February 13
$612.5K Vol. · Ended
No
February 13
$612.5K Vol. · Ended
No
February 13
$1M Vol. · Ended
No
February 28
$3.7M Vol. · Ended
Yes
February 28
$3.7M Vol. · Ended
Yes
February 28
$4.3M Vol. · Ended
Yes
March 15
$6.6M Vol. · Ended
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 20, 2026, 10:02 PM Asia/Dhaka
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