Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
00
DAYS
00
HRS
00
MINS
00
SECS
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
OpenAI
$291.7K Vol.
39%
xAI
$380.8K Vol.
27%
DeepSeek
$16.1K Vol.
14.7%
▲0.5%
Meta
$12.4K Vol.
9%
▼1.5%
Nvidia
$5.7K Vol.
6.3%
Mistral
$6.2K Vol.
6.1%
Z.ai
$3.1K Vol.
6%
Alibaba
$1.6K Vol.
5.3%
▼0.2%
Baidu
$1.8K Vol.
3.5%
▼0.2%
Meituan
$2.5K Vol.
3%
▼0.2%
Anthropic
$258K Vol. · Ended
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Created At: Jan 20, 2026, 10:02 PM Asia/Dhaka
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