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US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee fir...

0.1%

chance

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

50%

chance

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military stri...

64%

chance

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 31 10%

March 31 1.5%

Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by...?

99.9%

chance

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by...?

99.9%

chance

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

99.9%

chance

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

99.9%

chance

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

50%

chance